Maximum Credible Accident
by John Howlett
BBC Radio 4
A Maximum Credible Accident is the most serious nuclear reactor accident that can be hypothesized from an adverse combination of
equipment malfunction, operating errors, and other reasonable foreseen causes.
In Whitehall, the lobbying is intense and Gordon Aylen is at the centre of it. London and Washington want Britain to make the right decision
on fast breeder nuclear reactors and Gordon is in charge of writing the report to justify in doing so. But on the Tuscany coast, unknown to
Aylen, in the fast breeder Emilio Segre, something small, accidental and awesome has gone wrong.
A potentially catastrophic fault at a Fast Breeder Reactor in Italy starts the battle between conscience and expediency amongst politicians.
Adapted for radio from John Howlett's 1980 novel, "Maximum Credible Accident".
Music by Robert Campbell and Michael Sheppard.
Directed by Roger Pine in Birmingham.
1) 'Twisting the Dragon's Tail' (Sunday 30th May 1982)
Gordon Aylen, Under-Secretary in Charge of Nuclear Energy, is writing a report for Dr. Martin Reid, Secretary of State for Energy, on
whether Britain should move forward with the building of Fast-Breeder nuclear power plants. He awaits the Piatt Enquiry's Report on the
impact of these Fast-Breeders before he finishes his report. The British government had made a firm commitment to the building of a
Fast-Breeder reactor long before the Enquiry was set up. Gordon is in favour of the Fast-Breeders but is asked by Martin to play devil's
advocate - to counter the 'pro' arguments, thereby providing a complete report. To do this, he will look into his M.U.F. (Materials
Unaccounted For) file which contains all the arguments against nuclear. The first issue he comes across happened on 21st May 1946. A
Canadian physicist at Los Alamos demonstrates how neutron activity builds up when two spheres of Uranium 235 are gently eased towards
each. He nicknamed this demonstration 'Twisting the Dragon's Tail', but something goes wrong...
Meanwhile, the Americans are sending over one of their men to meet with Gordon in regards to secret talks in partnering with the UK to
build Fast-Breeders. Time is running short for the U.S. in the face of Congressional elections and a cold anti-nuclear wind blowing from
California. It puts the U.S. under pressure meaning that it is a good time to bargain with them.
Unknown to any party is that the Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant on the Tuscany coast in Italy is about to run into some major
problems that, if word gets out, will decide Britain's, and the world's, decision on using Fast-Breeders.
With Hugh Dickson [Gordon Aylen, Under-Secretary in Charge of Nuclear Energy], Patricia Gallimore [Kate Gee, Assistant Secretary in
Charge of the Fast-Breeder], Hayden Jones [The Voice of M.U.F. (Materials Unaccounted For)], Michael N. Harbour [Dr. Martin Reid,
Secretary of State for Energy], Anthony Benson [The Permanent Under Secretary], Patricia Gibson [Mary Aylen, Gordon's Wife], Kim
Durham [Roxy, Gordon's Gay Son], Kerry Shale [Joss, Gordon's Son], Graham Padden [Ashley, Parliamentary Private Secretary], Terry
Molloy [Enzo, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant in Italy], Hedli Niklaus [Janice, Gordon's Secretary], David
Vann [Mick, a Friend of Roxy's], and Terry Coates [The Defence Under-Secretary].
Other parts played by members of the cast.
30 minutes.
2) 'The Volkswagen Equation' (Sunday 6th June 1982)
John Henshaw, a freelance journalist with an agency in New York, arrives in the UK and enlists the help of Donnachy, a member of the
Friends of the Earth activist group and Salter, a freelance journalist. He's looking to dig up secret negotiations between the US and the UK
over Fast-Breeder Reactors. Washington needs an agreement signed and sealed with some other country before the new Congress gets
their teeth into their nuclear budget. The obvious choice is to buy into the UK's CDFR (Commercial Demonstration Fast Reactor).
Henshaw doesn't like dirty secrets - they need to be washed out into the open.
For Dave Ridgeway, the American Defense Under-Secretary sent over to negotiate a partnership with the British government to promote
the Fast-Breeder reactors, it's all about numbers and prices - the Volkswagen equation. Costs must be reduced. If you're building 10
reactors, you have a cost factor of 'X' divided by 10. If you're building a thousand reactors, your 'X' starts to shrink. But 'X' works both
ways. The more reactors you have, the greater the chance that one or more will run into difficulties.
Enzo, a Senior Operator at the Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder nuclear plant on the Tuscany coast in Italy, has been having alarms go off and
does not believe, as his superiors claim, that it has to do with faulty sensors. He wants to shut the plant down and have a look inside. But
with a demonstration slated for later that week to promote the Fast-Breeder technology, his superiors have another plan...
With Hugh Dickson [Gordon Aylen, Under-Secretary in Charge of Nuclear Energy], Patricia Gallimore [Kate Gee, Assistant Secretary in
Charge of the Fast-Breeder], Hayden Jones [The Voice of M.U.F. (Materials Unaccounted For)], Michael N. Harbour [Dr. Martin Reid,
British Secretary of State for Energy], Blain Fairman [Dave Ridgeway, American Defense Under-Secretary], Anthony Benson [The
Permanent Under-Secretary], Patricia Gibson [Mary Aylen, Gordon's Wife], Kim Durham [Roxy, Gordon's Gay Son], Simon Carter
[Salter, Freelance Journalist], Kerry Shale [John Henshaw, Freelance Journalist from New York / Joss, Gordon's Son], Graham Padden
[Donnachy, Member of Friends of the Earth], Terry Molloy [Enzo, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant in Italy],
Nigel Lambert [Gianni, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant in Italy], Heather Barrett [Helen Reid, Martin's
Wife], Mark Woolgar [Audish, Foreign Secretary], Ann Churchman [The Prime Minister], Ronald Herdman [Colonel Pendle, Gordon's
Neighbour], and David Vann [The French Engineer].
Other parts played by members of the cast.
30 minutes.
3) 'The Laws of Human Survival' (Sunday 13th June 1982)
Even as Gordon reads through the M.U.F. file on all that has gone wrong with Fast-Breeders in the past, he still feels that they are as
necessary and as logical for man's survival as it was, in its own time, the wheel. By the end of the week, Gordon has to present a wholly
convincing argument to the Secretary of State for Energy, persuading him of the Fast-Breeders necessity and desirability.
Trying to put a wrench in the use of Fast-Breeders, Henshaw and Salter sit down with Gordon's son, Roxy, under the pretence of writing
an article about his band for a music magazine. In reality, they are trying to find information on which direction Gordon is going with the
Fast-Breeders and if the U.S. has any involvement, they hope of publishing to embarrass the U.S. Government.
Meanwhile, the Emilio Segre Experimental Fast-Breeder reactor on the Tuscany coast in Italy has been running for five weeks at an output
of 90 to 150 Megawatts. Once the reactor is switched into the grid in two days time, it is planned to run at up to 400 Megawatts -
uncharted territory as no other reactor has ever run over 250 Megawatts. With a demonstration for a number of bigwigs in a couple of
days, the powers to be have decided to disable the sound sensors, the ones that already have set off 19 alarms over the previous five days,
not realising the danger that is about to hit them....
4) 'Murphy's Law' (Sunday 20th June 1982)
Enzo, a senior operator at the Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder nuclear plant on the Tuscany coast in Italy, is extremely worried about the safety
issues that are being bypassed at the facility. The sound sensors under the core have been re-classified as inessential instrumentation and
taken off the alarm grid. Enzo is keeping a record on what has gone on.
On the trail of Dave Ridgeway, who has suddenly gone to Tuscany to be at the Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder nuclear facility as it prepares to
go fully online, Henshaw has a meeting arranged with Donnachy's former girlfriend, Anna, a member of the Red Brigade. He feels that Anna
can help him find out what is going on at the Emilio Segre facility.
Gordon Aylen is beginning to have doubts about Britain going ahead with the Fast-Breeder reactors. One moment of human error,
compounded by circumstance and coincidence, can lead to disaster. If it happens to trains and airplanes; in coal mines; in chemical plants
and in steel works; then why shouldn't it also happen to a nuclear reactor. Murphy's Law No. 1: If something can go wrong, sooner or later
it will go wrong. Murphy's Law No. 2: When things go wrong anywhere, they go wrong everywhere.
5) 'Tuscan Star' (Sunday 27th June 1982)
On the day they are to go fully online, the Segre Fast-Breeder reactor computer reads out that there's been a core excursion which triggers
SCRAM (an emergency shutdown). Seventeen out of nineteen control rods fail to enter the core - the reactor will no longer shut down. At
this point, the computer enters unprogrammed territory and cannot further analyse the situation. Preparation for evacuation begins under the
cover of a NATO military exercise code named: Tuscan Star. The area and extent of operations depend on wind and weather forecast.
Dave Ridgeway convinces the operators that the fewer people who know what's happened, the better. Hopefully, the problem can be
corrected in the first six hours in which only troop and transport movements take place under the cover of a military exercise. Ridgeway
can't afford this mishap to affect Britain's decision to partner with them in the development of Fast-Breeders. Meanwhile, Henshaw, Anna,
and her partner decide to head over to the Segre nuclear facility after getting wind that something strange was going on. Why would half the
Italian army and navy suddenly want to move into a large concentration around Segre on the day it goes fully online?
Back in England, there's been a leak in the papers about Department of Energy Officials in London who are thought to be seeking an
agreement with representatives from Washington on joint finance and participation in the proposed and much postponed commercial
fast-breeder now under examination by Mr. Justice Piatt. Not wanting to appear to be circumventing proper channels, Gordon is asked to
finish his report earlier. The Secretary of State for Energy must know if they are to go with the fast-breeders and if so, should they go with
the Americans.
With Hugh Dickson [Gordon Aylen, Under-Secretary in Charge of Nuclear Energy], Patricia Gallimore [Kate Gee, Assistant Secretary in
Charge of the Fast-Breeder], Hayden Jones [The Voice of M.U.F. (Materials Unaccounted For)], Michael N. Harbour [Dr. Martin Reid,
British Secretary of State for Energy], Mark Woolgar [Audish, Foreign Secretary], Anthony Benson [The Permanent Under Secretary],
Blain Fairman [Dave Ridgeway, American Defense Under-Secretary], Terry Molloy [Enzo, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre
Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant], Nigel Lambert [Gianni, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant in Italy], Kerry Shale
[John Henshaw, Freelance Journalist from New York], Patricia Gibson [Mary Aylen, Gordon's Wife], Kim Durham [Roxy, Gordon's Gay
Son], Anna Lindup [Anna, Donnachy's Ex-Girlfriend], and Graham Padden [Ashley, Parliamentary Private Secretary].
6) 'Et Lux Perpetua' (Sunday 4th July 1982)
After Gordon writes six pages of gibberish to persuade himself and Dr. Martin that fast-breeders are desirable and necessary, he rips it all
up. He decides against recommending fast-breeders and will resign and tell the world if the government decides to go with it. Though
Gordon has told no one other than his wife, the Permanent Under-Secretary senses that Gordon is not on the same page as the Government
and has asked Kate Gee, Assistant Secretary in Charge of the Fast-Breeder, to go with Dave Ridgeway to his embassy where she will find
a legal team from the FCO to help her draft outlines for a Fast-Breeder agreement with the Americans.
At home, Gordon listens to Mozart's Requiem as he prepares his report for the Secretary of State, advising him to postpone indefinitely any
commitment to build a fast-breeder and to refuse the partnership sought after by the Americans. As he finishes the report, he hears the line
'et lux perpetua' from the Requiem and muses that it could be a slogan for the Fast-Breeder... or a terrible warning.
Meanwhile, Anna and her group have helped Henshaw line up a meeting with Enzo, a senior operator at Segre, to try and find out what is
really going on at the fast-breeder facility.
With Hugh Dickson [Gordon Aylen, Under-Secretary in Charge of Nuclear Energy], Patricia Gallimore [Kate Gee, Assistant Secretary in
Charge of the Fast-Breeder], Hayden Jones [The Voice of M.U.F. (Materials Unaccounted For)], Michael N. Harbour [Dr. Martin Reid,
British Secretary of State for Energy], Patricia Gibson [Mary Aylen, Gordon's Wife], Terry Molloy [Enzo, a Senior Operator at Emilio
Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant], Nigel Lambert [Gianni, a Senior Operator at Emilio Segre Fast-Breeder Nuclear Plant in Italy], Blain
Fairman [Dave Ridgeway, American Defense Under-Secretary], Mark Woolgar [Audish, Foreign Secretary], Anthony Benson [The
Permanent Under-Secretary], Kerry Shale [John Henshaw, Freelance Journalist from New York / Joss, Gordon's Son], Anna Lindup
[Anna, Donnachy's Ex-Girlfriend], Garard Green ['Tinfin', the Head of Science at Joss's School], Kim Durham [Roxy, Gordon's Gay Son],
Simon Carter [Salter, Freelance Journalist], and Graham Padden [Donnachy, Member of Friends of the Earth].
Jim
